Dunfermline and West Fife – Key Issues

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Dunfermline Press, Labour Scion, Pitcorthie Primary School

Pitcorthie Primary School – LINK

Cara Hilton (Labour Scion) won the Holyrood seat on the back of a campaign to keep this seat open and then propmtly voted to close it whilst serving as both MSP and councillor, she now blames the Scottish Government for closing it.  Thomas Docherty MP and Ms Hilton have combined with the Dunfermline Press to try to shift the blame onto the SG.

Dunfermline & West Fife – Key Facts (Draft)

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Dunfermline  and WEst Fife, Electorate, Labour

Key Marginal:
MP:
Party: Lab
Electorate (2010):
Turn out (2010):
Union/Indy (%):
Swing Required:

Comment:

How will Pitcorthie closure play out in Dunfermline  and WEst Fife?  LINK

 

Should Labour Be Worried? the answer is YES!

Curtiss fails to pick up on targeted campaigning by ‘angry’ YES voters in this blog from today,

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/10/labour-worried/?utm_content=buffer8a2ba&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Panelbase poll: SNP Westminster and Holyrood lead

Thu, 02/10/2014 – 14:43

The Scottish National Party published findings of a new poll commissioned by the party and conducted by Panelbase this week – which shows a 15-point lead for the SNP in Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions, and even puts the SNP ahead of Labour for the next Westminster general election.

Welcoming the poll, the SNP’s Business Convener Derek Mackay MSP said:

“Coming on top of the SNP gaining more than 50,000 new members since the referendum, these poll ratings are exceptionally good. After over seven years in office, the SNP have a 15-point lead over Labour for the Scottish Parliament, and are even in the lead for the next Westminster general election. At a similar stage in the 2007-11 Holyrood term, Labour had a double-digit lead over the SNP – and we went on to achieve a landslide victory. This time, the SNP have a double-digit lead.

“The situation after the referendum is redolent with opportunity for Scotland, and the SNP have the wind in our sails. Scotland was promised ‘extensive new powers’ in return for a No vote in a solemn vow by the Westminster parties. They are showing every sign of having to be dragged kicking and screaming to deliver on their vow.

“The more people in Scotland join and back the SNP, the stronger the pressure on Westminster to fulfil their pledge – and that is the key driver in soaring SNP membership and support.”

The poll details are as follows:

ELECTION RATINGS

* If a Scottish Parliamentary election was held tomorrow, who would you vote for with your constituency vote?
SNP: 42%
Labour: 27%
Conservative: 15%
Liberal Democrat: 5%
UKIP: 5%
Other: 5%

* And who would you vote for with your regional vote?
SNP: 37%
Labour: 27%
Conservative: 16%
Liberal Democrat: 5%
Greens: 9%
UKIP: 4%
Other: 1%

* If a UK Parliamentary election was held tomorrow, who would you vote for?
SNP: 34%
Labour: 32%
Conservative: 18%
Liberal Democrat: 5%
UKIP: 6%
Other: 5%

Note: The poll was conducted from 29 September to 1 October, among 1,049 adults resident in Scotland aged 16+. All the results were weighted by age, sex, household tenure, country of birth and socio-economic group. Respondents who voted in the 2011 Holyrood election and/or 2014 European elections were weighted back to the actual election results. UK voting intention was weighted to reflect the 2010 Westminster election rather than 2011.

High Voter Turnout Good for Independents? – Draft

Voter turnout will depend on the balance of two factors

Voter Engagement V’s Voter Fatigue.

For the Independents some good news, many Labour strongholds were won on VERY low turnouts, 9 out of 10 lowest turnouts are Labour with the other being Libdem Viz;

Constiuency	MP at 2010	Electorate	T/O
Glasgow North East	Willie Bain	59859	49.13
Glasgow Central	Anas Sarwar	60062	50.91
Glasgow East	Margaret Curran	61516	52.29
Glasgow South West	Ian Davidson	58182	54.62
Airdrie and Shotts	Pamela Nash	62364	57.48
Glasgow North	Ann McKechin	51416	57.59
Aberdeen North	Frank Doran	64808	58.17
Glasgow North West	John Robertson	60968	58.36
Motherwell and Wishaw	Frank Roy	66918	58.46
Orkney and Shetland	Alistair Carmichael	33085	58.47

…

Edinburgh West – Key Facts (Draft)

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Labour

Key Marginal: 34
MP: Mike Crokart
Party: Lib
Electorate (2010): 65161
Turn out (2010): 71
Union/Indy (%): 87 / 13
Swing Required: 13%

Comment:

Ochill & S Perthshire – Key Facts (Draft)

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Labour

Key Marginal: 03
MP: Gordon Banks
Party: Lab
Electorate (2010): 75115
Turn out (2010): 67.19
Union/Indy (%): 70 / 30
Swing Required: 5.5%

Comment:

Lib Dem Collapse ? – Draft

There has been a general assumption that the Libdem vote in Scotland will collapse after their coalition with the Tories.

There is some truth to this however they always seem to keep their vote up in some areas, Where they have MP’s they tend to be very strong presence (Sorry guys Carmichael going to be a bugger to shift).

2010 General Election results;

	Labour	41	0	59	0	1,035,528	42.0	+2.5
	Liberal Democrat	11	0	59	0	465,471	18.9	-3.7
	SNP	6	0	59	0	491,386	19.9	+2.3
	Conservative	1	0	591	2	412,855	16.7	+0.9

The Libdem’s had 25 thousand fewer votes than the SNP but gained nearly twice as many seats.  In fact the SNP needed three times as many votes as Labour per seat.

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Aberdeen South – Key Facts (Draft)

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Labour

Key Marginal: 37
MP: Ann Begg
Party: Lab
Electorate (2010): 64031
Turn out (2010): 67.21
Union/Indy (%): 85.65 / 11.86
Swing Required: 13%

Comment:

Nuff said?

Voting Factor – UKIP

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UKIP

What effect will the rise of UKIP have on your constituency?

UKIP have very few ‘boots on the ground’ but do seem to attract an enviable amount of media coverage for a party with (as yet) no MP/MSP’s and only one elected member in the whole of Scotland.

UKIP are trying hard to attract disaffected Labour voters the very sort SNP have been attracting over the past few years.

For a great account of how UKIP will affect the 2015 GE read >This<