59 Bye-Elections

An Independence Activists Campaign Strategy for the 2015 UK General Election;

Bye Elections have a special feel to them, they tend to be harder fought because the whole party machine can give them undivided attention, in the 2015 General Election this is only true of the Independents, the YES campaigners have much more fire power on the ground and a genuine grassroots movement that reaches all areas of Scotland, Unionist Parties will be stretched over the whole UK. Therefore it is in the interest of those wishing to return Members of Parliament in favour of Scottish Independence to fight EACH and EVERY one of the constituencies like a Bye-Election!

What we have we hold”
It would be tempting to think that in the current environment the 6 current SNP MP’s would easily maintain their seats. This is of course not true. If the Independence parties can organise and vote tactically so can the Unionists.

Key Marginals
Independence Parties require 30 (24+current SNP) of the 59 MP’s to declare ‘Victory’ or ‘Majority’. Whilst Key Marginals are a term used primarily in a General Election strategy it does give a (somewhat) useful ranking and indicator of mood, excluding Big Hitters (See below) here are the 24 top ‘key marginals’ –

1 Falkirk Eric Joyce LAB

2 Dundee West James McGovern LAB

3 Ochil and South Perthshire Gordon Banks LAB

4 Livingston Graeme Morrice LAB

5 Ayrshire North and Arran Katy Clark LAB

6 Kilmarnock and Loudoun Cathy Jamieson LAB

7 Linlithgow and East Falkirk Michael Connarty LAB

8 Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Gregg McClymont LAB

9 Airdrie and Shotts Pamela Nash LAB

10 East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Michael McCann LAB

11 Gordon Malcolm Bruce LIB

12 Aberdeen North Frank Doran LAB

13 Glenrothes Lindsay Roy LAB

14 Edinburgh East Sheila Gilmore LAB

15 Lanark and Hamilton East Jimmy Hood LAB

16 Midlothian David Hamilton LAB

17 Dunbartonshire West Gemma Doyle LAB

18 Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross John Thurso LIB

19 Argyll and Bute Alan Reid LIB

20 Paisley and Renfrewshire North James Sheridan LAB

21 Ayrshire Central Brian Donohoe LAB

22 Motherwell and Wishaw Frank Roy LAB

23 Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Sandra Osborne LAB

24 Inverclyde David Cairns LAB

Hinterlands
Off course why stop at 30 why not try for them all? Other Scottish seats

25 Stirling Anne McGuire LAB

26 Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Tom Clarke LAB

27 East Lothian Fiona O’Donnell LAB

28 Rutherglen and Hamilton West Tom Greatrex LAB

29 Glasgow North West John Robertson LAB

30 Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Sir Robert Smith LIB

31 Ross Skye and Lochaber Charles Kennedy LIB

32 Glasgow North East Willie Bain LAB

33 Fife North East Sir Menzies Campbell LIB

34 Edinburgh West Michael Crockart LIB

35 Glasgow North Ann McKechin LAB

Big Hitters

Where there is an impetus to remove incumbents, personality politics sometimes comes into play here are the top 10 Unionist Big hitters, chosen for their particular role in both Independence referendum and Politics in General. A potential strategy for these constituencies in particular may be to put in non Political Candidates (think Martin Bell, Tatton 1997). Potential list includes Jeanne Freeman, Cat Boyd, Brian Cox, though of course these would bring their own challenges.

BH01 Glasgow East Margaret Curran

BH02 Glasgow South Tom Harris

BH03 Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Danny Alexander

BH04 Glasgow Central Anas Sarwar

BH05 Paisley and Renfrewshire South Douglas Alexander

BH06 Glasgow South West Ian Davidson

BH07 Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Gordon Brown

BH08 Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling

BH09 Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael

BH10 Renfrewshire East Jim Murphy

The Citadels of Unionism

Wouldn’t it be great if we could get 59 Independentistas? That may be stretching it so ‘special measures’ will need to be enacted to get these weevils out…

36 Dumfries and Galloway Russell Brown LAB

37 Aberdeen South Anne Begg LAB

38 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell CON

39 Dunfermline and West Fife Thomas Docherty LAB

40 Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson LIB

41 Edinburgh North and Leith Mark Lazarowicz LAB

42 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Michael Moore LIB

43 Edinburgh South Ian Murray LAB

England expects…”

…you to give up and of course by England I mean the Westminster/City Elite… the hard pressed people of the rest of these isles are looking to us to continue the pressure on the powers that be to secure long lasting meaningful change to the politics of Britain.

Over the next few months this blog hopes to educate, motive and activate previous YES campaigners to … “Work as if you live in the early days of a better nation”

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